STAT40660 Probability & Statistics

Academic Year 2021/2022

The aim of this module is to provide students with a grounding in the fundamental statistical methods of relevance to actuarial work. Students will cover both the theoretical and applied statistical techniques used in actuarial modelling. Topics covered include: Probability, Random Variables, Distributions, The Central Limit Theorem, Inference, Estimation, Hypothesis Testing and Linear Regression.


Please note that the exam for this module is held in January, before the start of teaching term in Spring.

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Curricular information is subject to change

Learning Outcomes:

At the end of the module students should be able to demonstrate an understanding of:
Probability – definitions, combinatorics, Bayes Theorem
Random Variables - moment generating functions, conditional expectation, bivariate random variables, conditional and marginal distributions
Distributions – discrete distributions: geometric, binomial;, negative binomial, hypergeometric, Poisson, uniform, normal and continuous distributions: normal, lognormal, exponential, gamma, chi-square, t, F, beta and uniform and compound distributions
The Central Limit Theorem - definition, continuity correction and applications
Statistical Inference – random samples and sampling distributions, interval estimation
Theory of Estimation – methods of moments and maximum likelihood, properties of estimators
Hypothesis Testing – simple and composite hypothesis, likelihood ratio test, contingency tables
Linear Regression – correlation, least squares estimates, inference from linear models, model checking, analysis of variance

Indicative Module Content:

Probability
Random Variables
Distributions
The Central Limit Theorem
Statistical Inference
Theory of Estimation
Hypothesis Testing
Linear Regression

Student Effort Hours: 
Student Effort Type Hours
Lectures

42
Tutorial

10
Autonomous Student Learning

74
Total

126
Approaches to Teaching and Learning:
problem-based solving. lectures. video lectures. lab work. reflective learning. 
Requirements, Exclusions and Recommendations

Not applicable to this module.


Module Requisites and Incompatibles
Not applicable to this module.
 
Assessment Strategy  
Description Timing Open Book Exam Component Scale Must Pass Component % of Final Grade
Continuous Assessment: Continuous assessment Throughout the Trimester n/a Other No

20
Examination: Exam 3 hour End of Trimester Exam No Other No

80

Carry forward of passed components
No
 
Resit In Terminal Exam
Spring Yes - 3 Hour
Please see Student Jargon Buster for more information about remediation types and timing. 
Feedback Strategy/Strategies

• Feedback individually to students, post-assessment
• Group/class feedback, post-assessment

How will my Feedback be Delivered?

Assignments individually marked and returned. Group feedback given in tutorials.

Name Role
Ms Courtney Clarke Tutor