# STAT20110 Introduction to Probability

This module is an introduction to probability, with examples and applications. This includes formulating a probabilistic experiment in a mathematical way, calculating probabilities of events, updating probabilities given known information and understanding the quantitative outputs of an experiment by their distributions and expected values. The central limit theorem will also be studied which is a powerful tool for estimating probabilities involving a large number of variables.

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Curricular information is subject to change

Learning Outcomes:

An ability to understand the origins and development of probability theory. An ability to appropriately use many of the classic discrete and continuous probability distributions. An ability to calculate and manipulate probabilities given additional information. An appreciation and ability to use the law of averages and the central limit theorem.

Indicative Module Content:

Topics covered will include: outcomes, events, and probability; independence; random variables (both continuous and discrete) and distributions; expected value, moments and variance; permutations and combinations; binomial, multinomial and Poisson distributions; conditional probability and expectation; law of averages; central limit theorem.

Student Effort Hours:
Student Effort Type Hours
Lectures

36

Tutorial

10

Autonomous Student Learning

72

Total

118

Approaches to Teaching and Learning:
Lectures, tutorials, enquiry and problem-based learning.
Requirements, Exclusions and Recommendations
Learning Recommendations:

Desirable to already have taken a basic course in Statistics and be familiar with integration and differentiation.

Module Requisites and Incompatibles
Incompatibles:
STAT10010 - Research Methods, STAT10140 - Research Methods for Science, STAT20060 - Statistics and Probability, STAT20200 - Probability

Assessment Strategy
Description Timing Open Book Exam Component Scale Must Pass Component % of Final Grade
Continuous Assessment: Exercise sheets Throughout the Trimester n/a Standard conversion grade scale 40% No

30

Examination: Written examination 2 hour End of Trimester Exam No Standard conversion grade scale 40% No

70

Carry forward of passed components
No

Resit In Terminal Exam
Spring Yes - 2 Hour