BSEN40470 Predictive Modelling and Risk Assessment

Academic Year 2024/2025

The specific objectives of this module are:
(i) to develop each participants capacity to collect and analyse data for use in risk assessment
(ii) to build skills in developing or selecting modelling structures appropriate to describe quantitatively chemical, microbiological and physical phenomena and develop capabilities for quantifying accurately the sources of stochasticity,
(iii) to make participants familiar with dose-response modelling approaches and model simulation, that can be exploited for developing decision-making and quantitative risk assessment tools.
(iv) to integrate exposure assessment and hazard characterisation steps into a coherent Risk Characterisation.

Theoretical lectures will be alternated with problem-based learning (PBL). Theoretical lectures will cover all the fundamentals and basic principles of modelling approaches. Additionally, PBL pedagogical tools will be used in which students will work in groups to solve realistic multifaceted problems with the use of relevant software tools.

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Curricular information is subject to change

Learning Outcomes:

By the end of the programme students will:
(i) have attained a fundamental understanding of the substantial body of applied modelling, statistics and recent developments in the field of Predictive Modelling and Quantitative Risk Assessment of foods,
(ii) have exercised personal responsibility and autonomous initiative in designing and solving complex microbiological problems that are solved in a rigorous and professional approach,
(iii) have engaged in critical dialogue and learned to criticise the broader implication of Applied Modelling approaches in Food safety through interactive teaching,
(iv) have exploited available software packages and quantitative approaches for enriching current studies in the field.

Indicative Module Content:

Indicative Module Content:

1: Introduction to BSEN40470 and Recap of BSEN30060 Quantitative Risk Assessment**
- Overview of BSEN40470 and its objectives.
- Recap of key concepts and methodologies covered in BSEN30060 Quantitative Risk Assessment.
2: Dose-response on Microbes**
- Understanding dose-response relationships for microbial contaminants.
- Case studies and examples illustrating microbial dose-response models.
3: Dose-response on Chemicals: Part A**
- Exploring dose-response relationships for chemical contaminants.
- Overview of traditional dose-response assessment methods.
4: Dose-response on Chemicals: Part B (Meta-analysis)**
- Introduction to meta-analysis techniques in dose-response assessment.
- Practical exercises and applications of meta-analysis in chemical risk assessment.
5: Exposure Assessment**
- Principles and methodologies of exposure assessment.
- Sampling strategies and data collection techniques for assessing exposure to contaminants.
6: Risk Characterization**
- Techniques for characterizing and communicating risks to stakeholders.
- Case studies demonstrating risk characterization in various environmental and occupational settings.
7: Bayesian Analysis (Theory + 2 Exercises)**
- Introduction to Bayesian analysis and its applications in risk assessment.
- Theoretical foundations and practical exercises to understand Bayesian inference.
8: Data Collection for Exposure Assessment and Regression Modelling**
- Practical session on data collection methodologies for exposure assessment.
- Introduction to regression modeling techniques for analyzing exposure data.
9: Case Study
- Application of concepts learned throughout the module to a real-world case study.
- Group discussion and analysis of the case study, focusing on risk assessment and Bayesian analy

Student Effort Hours: 
Student Effort Type Hours
Lectures

24

Computer Aided Lab

6

Specified Learning Activities

30

Autonomous Student Learning

60

Total

120

Approaches to Teaching and Learning:
Strong emphasis on students taking the initiative on active learning with mixture of active/task-based learning; pc lab work; enquiry & problem-based learning 
Requirements, Exclusions and Recommendations

Not applicable to this module.


Module Requisites and Incompatibles
Additional Information:
Participants will need experience in Quantitative Risk Assessment. It is advised participants have completed BSEN30060 - Quantitative Risk Assessment, or for Exchange/Erasmus Students an equivalent module will be considered on case by case basis.


 
Assessment Strategy  
Description Timing Open Book Exam Component Scale Must Pass Component % of Final Grade
Assignment(Including Essay): Final assignment n/a Graded Yes

20

Quizzes/Short Exercises: MCQ on theoretical elements of risk assessment and the use of probability distributions n/a Graded No

30

Exam (In-person): Final examination in suitable PC room n/a Graded Yes

20

Portfolio: Portfolio of weekly assignments. Exercise to be completed at the end of each class. n/a Graded No

30


Carry forward of passed components
Yes
 
Resit In Terminal Exam
Summer No
Please see Student Jargon Buster for more information about remediation types and timing. 
Feedback Strategy/Strategies

• Group/class feedback, post-assessment

How will my Feedback be Delivered?

Not yet recorded.

Name Role
Dr Rajat Nag Tutor